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Sha Tin · 2024-02-12 · 07:39

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2024-02-12 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. KA YING RISING, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D A Hayes, won by N, with LADY'S CHOICE second and EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS third. Victory came as the 1.3 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.95
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 KA YING RISING 1.08.95 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D A Hayes 2 1.3 N
2 9 LADY'S CHOICE H/V K C Leung · C W Chang 11 25.0 N
3 8 EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 9 8.0 1/2
4 3 JOYFUL HUNTER XB-/TT1 A Atzeni · K W Lui 7 9.7 2-3/4
5 6 ARMOUR WAR EAGLE H M L Yeung · K H Ting 13 47.0 3
6 14 SHOW RESPECT H-/XB Y L Chung · M Newnham 1 65.0 3-3/4
7 13 SUGAR BALL CP/H/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 5 195.0 4-3/4
8 12 SOLAR PARTNER TT B Thompson · P F Yiu 3 71.0 5-3/4
9 5 PINS PRINCE H/P/TT B Avdulla · J Size 8 119.0 7
10 7 MASSIVE ACTION SR/V A Hamelin · F C Lor 14 65.0 7-3/4
11 11 GOOD LUCK WIN B1/TT1 A Badel · M Newnham 6 88.0 7-3/4
12 10 CAPTAIN WIN PC-/B2/TT- K Teetan · P C Ng 10 20.0 7-3/4
13 2 SUPER FORTUNE H/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 4 25.0 8-1/4
14 1 IMA SINGLE MAN B/H/TT L Hewitson · A S Cruz 12 91.0 9-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KA YING RISING2. LADY'S CHOICE+0.05L3. EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS+0.5L4. JOYFUL HUNTER+2.75L5. ARMOUR WAR EAGLE+3L6. SHOW RESPECT+3.75L7. SUGAR BALL+4.75L8. SOLAR PARTNER+5.75L9. PINS PRINCE+7L10. MASSIVE ACTION+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick KA YING RISING (52.0%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 KA YING RISING 52.0% 1.92 1
2 8 EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS 11.4% 8.80 3
3 3 JOYFUL HUNTER 7.4% 13.53 4
4 10 CAPTAIN WIN 4.4% 22.68 12
5 2 SUPER FORTUNE 4.1% 24.34 13
6 14 SHOW RESPECT 3.4% 29.13 6
7 12 SOLAR PARTNER 3.0% 32.82 8
8 7 MASSIVE ACTION 2.8% 36.15 10
9 11 GOOD LUCK WIN 2.7% 36.70 11
10 9 LADY'S CHOICE 2.6% 37.94 2
11 6 ARMOUR WAR EAGLE 2.3% 42.80 5
12 5 PINS PRINCE 1.8% 56.56 9
13 1 IMA SINGLE MAN 1.6% 63.76 14
14 13 SUGAR BALL 0.5% 214.55 7
KA YING RISING — wonEIGHTY LIGHT YEARSJOYFUL HUNTERCAPTAIN WINSUPER FORTUNESHOW RESPECTSOLAR PARTNERMASSIVE ACTIONGOOD LUCK WINLADY'S CHOICEARMOUR WAR EAGLEPINS PRINCEIMA SINGLE MANSUGAR BALL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 13

PLACE

4 10.5

8 18.5

9 35

QUINELLA

4,9 112.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,8 21

4,9 50.5

8,9 110.5

FORECAST

4,9 143

TIERCE

4,9,8 486

TRIO

4,8,9 166

FIRST 4

3,4,8,9 183

QUARTET

4,9,8,3 2,229

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

6,9,11/4,8,9 71,171

6TH DOUBLE

9/4 144.5

9/9 378

TRIPLE TRIO

2,11,13/6,9,11/4,8,9 20,913,480

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,11,13/6,9,11/Any Combination 184,151