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Sha Tin · 2024-02-12 · 05:33

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2024-02-12 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. PARTERRE, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by W Y So, won by 1, with PATCH OF THETA second and SPICY GOLD third. The 1.6 favourite MASTER MASTERMIND finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.09.89
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 PARTERRE B 1.09.89 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · W Y So 3 21.0 1
2 3 PATCH OF THETA H/XB K De Melo · K W Lui 12 3.9 1
3 10 SPICY GOLD L Ferraris · M Newnham 2 16.0 1-1/2
4 14 JAZZ CLUB M Chadwick · K L Man 5 26.0 2
5 12 SIGHT VICTORY H/XB1 A Badel · J Size 1 17.0 3
6 8 SUPER GLORY CP1 A Atzeni · P C Ng 13 22.0 4
7 2 EASY SNIP B C L Chau · T P Yung 9 29.0 4-1/4
8 6 MASTER MASTERMIND TT1 Z Purton · D A Hayes 6 1.6 4-1/2
9 5 MARIO B1 B Avdulla · D J Hall 4 173.0 4-1/2
10 7 PACKING WISHER TT1 K Teetan · C S Shum 11 109.0 5-3/4
11 9 GOLDEN LINK E C W Wong · P F Yiu 14 27.0 6-1/2
12 11 PATCH OF WATCH SR1/TT- Y L Chung · K H Ting 8 66.0 7-1/2
13 13 URBAN TRIUMPH V-/CP1/TT M F Poon · W K Mo 7 183.0 7-3/4
14 4 FUNG M L Yeung · C W Chang 10 163.0 8

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PARTERRE2. PATCH OF THETA+1L3. SPICY GOLD+1.5L4. JAZZ CLUB+2L5. SIGHT VICTORY+3L6. SUPER GLORY+4L7. EASY SNIP+4.25L8. MASTER MASTERMIND+4.5L9. MARIO+4.5L10. PACKING WISHER+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick MASTER MASTERMIND (25.3%) finished 8th — the winner PARTERRE was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 MASTER MASTERMIND 25.3% 3.96 8
2 3 PATCH OF THETA 17.1% 5.86 2
3 7 PACKING WISHER 11.4% 8.76 10
4 8 SUPER GLORY 9.0% 11.15 6
5 2 EASY SNIP 8.3% 12.09 7
6 1 PARTERRE 5.5% 18.08 1
7 10 SPICY GOLD 5.1% 19.49 3
8 14 JAZZ CLUB 4.9% 20.58 4
9 5 MARIO 4.1% 24.26 9
10 9 GOLDEN LINK 3.3% 30.33 11
11 12 SIGHT VICTORY 2.4% 41.89 5
12 13 URBAN TRIUMPH 1.4% 70.96 13
13 4 FUNG 1.2% 85.70 14
14 11 PATCH OF WATCH 1.1% 90.49 12
MASTER MASTERMINDPATCH OF THETAPACKING WISHERSUPER GLORYEASY SNIPPARTERRE — wonSPICY GOLDJAZZ CLUBMARIOGOLDEN LINKSIGHT VICTORYURBAN TRIUMPHFUNGPATCH OF WATCH

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 212

PLACE

1 34

3 14

10 37

QUINELLA

1,3 298.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 78.5

1,10 258.5

3,10 72

FORECAST

1,3 787

TIERCE

1,3,10 7,814

TRIO

1,3,10 962

FIRST 4

1,3,10,14 3,025

QUARTET

1,3,10,14 73,520

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,12,13/1,3,10 258,263

2ND DOUBLE

13/1 1,254

13/3 36