Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2024-02-12 · 06:04

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2024-02-12 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. WINDCHEATER, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by M Newnham, won by 1-1/4, with MUST GO second and STAR CLUB third. Victory came as the 3.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.71
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 WINDCHEATER 1.09.71 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · M Newnham 4 3.5 1-1/4
2 4 MUST GO E/P/TT1 Z Purton · J Size 9 33.0 1-1/4
3 3 STAR CLUB B Avdulla · D J Hall 8 7.2 1-1/4
4 7 GOLDEN BULL XB/TT C L Chau · C S Shum 14 10.0 1-3/4
5 6 GLORY ELITE L Hewitson · K H Ting 3 11.0 3
6 11 MANYTHANKS FOREVER TT A Atzeni · J Richards 1 19.0 3-1/2
7 2 SUPER GOLDI K C Leung · F C Lor 11 4.7 3-1/2
8 1 RUN RUN TIMING TT H Bentley · C H Yip 13 4.5 5-1/4
9 14 HEARTY WISH B-/TT- Y L Chung · D J Whyte 10 62.0 5-1/4
10 13 CALIFORNIA ICON B/TT A Badel · A S Cruz 5 41.0 7
11 5 AUTUMN DELIGHT TT1 K Teetan · C Fownes 2 30.0 7-1/2
12 12 PATCH OF KINGDOM TT1 M L Yeung · K L Man 12 132.0 7-1/2
13 9 TELECOM BULLET K De Melo · Y S Tsui 6 97.0 8-1/2
14 8 LE MAILLOT JAUNE B-/CP1/TT B Thompson · W K Mo 7 193.0 23
0 STRATHBARRY · T P Yung

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WINDCHEATER2. MUST GO+1.25L3. STAR CLUB+1.25L4. GOLDEN BULL+1.75L5. GLORY ELITE+3L6. MANYTHANKS FOREVER+3.5L7. SUPER GOLDI+3.5L8. RUN RUN TIMING+5.25L9. HEARTY WISH+5.25L10. CALIFORNIA ICON+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick RUN RUN TIMING (19.4%) finished 8th — the winner WINDCHEATER was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 RUN RUN TIMING 19.4% 5.15 8
2 2 SUPER GOLDI 15.2% 6.56 7
3 7 GOLDEN BULL 11.4% 8.79 4
4 5 AUTUMN DELIGHT 10.1% 9.88 11
5 3 STAR CLUB 8.9% 11.19 3
6 6 GLORY ELITE 8.2% 12.25 5
7 11 MANYTHANKS FOREVER 7.1% 14.11 6
8 10 WINDCHEATER 6.8% 14.79 1
9 4 MUST GO 4.5% 22.35 2
10 9 TELECOM BULLET 3.4% 29.47 13
11 14 HEARTY WISH 2.4% 40.98 9
12 13 CALIFORNIA ICON 1.4% 69.07 10
13 8 LE MAILLOT JAUNE 0.6% 173.20 14
14 12 PATCH OF KINGDOM 0.5% 186.84 12
RUN RUN TIMINGSUPER GOLDIGOLDEN BULLAUTUMN DELIGHTSTAR CLUBGLORY ELITEMANYTHANKS FOREVERWINDCHEATER — wonMUST GOTELECOM BULLETHEARTY WISHCALIFORNIA ICONLE MAILLOT JAUNEPATCH OF KINGDOM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 35.5

PLACE

3 22.5

4 79

10 16

QUINELLA

4,10 736

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 331.5

3,10 55.5

4,10 228

FORECAST

10,4 1,043

TIERCE

10,4,3 9,520

TRIO

3,4,10 1,397

FIRST 4

3,4,7,10 2,861

QUARTET

10,4,3,7 73,903

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

1/4 876.5

1/10 800.5