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Sha Tin · 2024-02-12 · 09:54

Race 11

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 11 at Sha Tin on 2024-02-12 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. GIDDY UP, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by J Richards, won by 1/2, with SUPERB KID second and BLUE MARLIN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite STORM RIDER finished 12th.

Result

Official · 1.22.11
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 GIDDY UP Closed strongly H-/TT 1.22.11 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · J Richards 9 30.0 1/2
2 11 SUPERB KID Closed strongly K De Melo · K W Lui 11 13.0 1/2
3 1 BLUE MARLIN Closed strongly H H Bentley · D J Whyte 5 10.0 3/4
4 13 MAGNIFICENT NINE Closed strongly Z Purton · J Size 7 4.5 1-1/2
5 7 KARMA Closed strongly TT M L Yeung · C Fownes 3 11.0 1-3/4
6 14 TALENTS AMBITION Closed strongly XB1 A Atzeni · M Newnham 8 22.0 1-3/4
7 2 QUANTUM PATCH Closed strongly K Teetan · P C Ng 6 14.0 2-1/4
8 4 SINBA Closed strongly B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 13 11.0 3
9 5 LESLIE B K C Leung · C W Chang 1 19.0 3-3/4
10 10 E LEGEND M Chadwick · K L Man 4 23.0 4-1/4
11 9 RUN RUN COOL PC L Ferraris · F C Lor 2 41.0 5-1/2
12 6 STORM RIDER K H Chan · D A Hayes 10 3.0 5-1/2
13 3 SUPER WINNER Led early TT M F Poon · C H Yip 12 41.0 8
14 8 JOLLY RULER H L Hewitson · P F Yiu 14 50.0 9
0 WINNER METHOD C L Chau · C S Shum

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GIDDY UP2. SUPERB KID+0.5L3. BLUE MARLIN+0.75L4. MAGNIFICENT NINE+1.5L5. KARMA+1.75L6. TALENTS AMBITION+1.75L7. QUANTUM PATCH+2.25L8. SINBA+3L9. LESLIE+3.75L10. E LEGEND+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick STORM RIDER (25.0%) finished 12th — the winner GIDDY UP was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 STORM RIDER 25.0% 4.01 12
2 13 MAGNIFICENT NINE 14.3% 7.00 4
3 1 BLUE MARLIN 13.4% 7.44 3
4 2 QUANTUM PATCH 10.8% 9.29 7
5 7 KARMA 10.1% 9.92 5
6 5 LESLIE 4.7% 21.05 9
7 11 SUPERB KID 4.5% 22.06 2
8 14 TALENTS AMBITION 3.7% 27.36 6
9 4 SINBA 3.0% 32.79 8
10 9 RUN RUN COOL 2.5% 39.49 11
11 12 GIDDY UP 2.4% 42.27 1
12 8 JOLLY RULER 2.0% 48.79 14
13 3 SUPER WINNER 2.0% 50.20 13
14 10 E LEGEND 1.5% 65.05 10
STORM RIDERMAGNIFICENT NINEBLUE MARLINQUANTUM PATCHKARMALESLIESUPERB KIDTALENTS AMBITIONSINBARUN RUN COOLGIDDY UP — wonJOLLY RULERSUPER WINNERE LEGEND

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 307

PLACE

1 29.5

11 37

12 77.5

QUINELLA

11,12 1,839

QUINELLA PLACE

1,11 178

1,12 450

11,12 498.5

FORECAST

12,11 3,998

TIERCE

12,11,1 37,852

TRIO

1,11,12 5,560

FIRST 4

1,11,12,13 5,757

QUARTET

12,11,1,13 229,266

All pools (4 more)

10TH DOUBLE

3/11 724

3/12 6,445.5

2ND TREBLE

5/3/11 2,729

5/3/12 53,958

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

3,5,11/1,11,12 417,348

SIX UP

9/4/4/5/3/12 3,742,164

9,11/4,9/4,6/1,5/3,5/11,12 3,139

1 [Z Purton]

2 [J Size]